Is Intrade Really Accurate?
I had the most bloodcurdling nightmare several days ago. I dreamed I was reading an article that said Intrade was no longer reliable. The website used to be accurate but now it’s deteriorated and become totally useless. NOOO!!!
In case you’re not familiar with this website, Intrade makes political predictions based on financial/market data instead of opinion polls. I don’t have enough financial interest or knowledge to understand how or why these predictions work. But supposedly in the 2004 election they correctly predicted the outcome in all fifty states.
And a Hat Tip to Prague Twin who did a post about Intrade last Spring. That was how I found out about it.
The one strike against Intrade that I know of: They predicted that Hillary Clinton would win the Democratic nomination. OOPS. Let’s hope their current predictions are more accurate.
If I’m understanding them correctly, Intrade (as of this writing) gives Barack Obama an 89.1% chance of being our next president. There’s an 11.9% chance that John McCain will be the next president.
Works for me.
cross-posted at Bring It On!
Labels: Intrade McCain Obama