Is Intrade Really Accurate?
I had the most bloodcurdling nightmare several days ago. I dreamed I was reading an article that said Intrade was no longer reliable. The website used to be accurate but now it’s deteriorated and become totally useless. NOOO!!!
In case you’re not familiar with this website, Intrade makes political predictions based on financial/market data instead of opinion polls. I don’t have enough financial interest or knowledge to understand how or why these predictions work. But supposedly in the 2004 election they correctly predicted the outcome in all fifty states.
And a Hat Tip to Prague Twin who did a post about Intrade last Spring. That was how I found out about it.
The one strike against Intrade that I know of: They predicted that Hillary Clinton would win the Democratic nomination. OOPS. Let’s hope their current predictions are more accurate.
If I’m understanding them correctly, Intrade (as of this writing) gives Barack Obama an 89.1% chance of being our next president. There’s an 11.9% chance that John McCain will be the next president.
Works for me.
cross-posted at Bring It On!
Labels: Intrade McCain Obama
posted by Tom Harper @ 5:59 PM
15 Comments:
I like Intrade if that's their prediction :-)
Carlos: Me too.
Whew--for real. Let's hope they're accurate. [crossing fingers, praying]
Miss Kitty: Ah yes, every two bodyparts that can be crossed are firmly crossed (makes typing kind of awkward).
I don't know beans about Intrade, but I too hope and pray that 89 percent prediction is right — with Obama winning by a ripoff-proof margin.
SW: That's my hope and prayer too.
I just got back from voting and got my "I voted" sticker. It is on election day that I always feel the most "American". I realize what a unique privilege it is to have a say in who governs my country. I don't know about other states but here in North Carolina it's a bit of a party. You stop to chat with people from your neighborhood you don't get to see often, you get to exchange pleasantries with party reps outside, someone tells a joke -- we just have a good time.
However this turns out, my hope is that we will put aside all differences and band together as Americans first and try to work together for the greater good. I believe no matter what side of the fence a person is on, we all love our country and that should be our first priority -- to work side by side to set things right.
Happy Election Day to all!
Peace & Love,
Rocky
The winds are blowing the right way, as you can see from the ever-angrier comments the 'tards are leaving.
Jenn, everybody's favorite 'tard, now claims ACORN had a role in the financial meltdown.
They're losing their minds(?), which tells me better than any poll how the election is going to go.
I always check the tea leaves. Mine say "Obama." And that's plain old Lipton black tea, not some weird, East Coast elitist tea.
Rockync: Congrats on voting. I too like the ritual and the interaction of voting. Or I should say I miss it. In the county where I live now, all voting is done through the mail. I like it this way because it's probably more reliable than counting on voting machines to be honest and functioning properly. But I enjoyed the actual voting process all those years.
And I'll be so relieved when this election is over, I'll probably fall asleep for a week. It would be nice to get past all the venom and start unifying again. I think the hatred and polarization are even worse than they were at the height of the Vietnam war. It has to end.
JR: Ah yes, good old Jenn. I hate to admit it, but I keep going over to that sickass blog just to see what those wingtards are saying. It probably says something terrible about me; I don't wish to go there.
Even funnier, her sidekick Jonathan (Crush Liberalism) is apparently giving up blogging at the end of the year. He's found Jesus and he feels terrible about all the insults and slanders he's been hurling at moonbats. LOL.
Paul: Tea leaves??? Oh come on, that's so primitive. Get with the times. Pig entrails are much more accurate.
Rocky, I'm with you about voting at a polling place. It's a good experience. Many polls were in schools, and it was good for kids to see people turning out to vote.
Unfortunately, though, most of Washington state has gone vote by mail. I can't deny the convenience, especially for people whose jobs making getting out to vote difficult. Still, I wish we could have a choice.
I've never voted for the winner in any election, so just to continue this trend and not jinx it, I voted for Cynthia McKinney.
Lew: I've had mixed results with elections, but this year I'm hopeful that my candidate will win -- McCain :)
HOORAY FOR ALL OF US!!!!!!!!!
Rockync: Hooray! Happy Bastille Day!
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