If “Obamacare” Gets Overturned…
It’s pointless to speculate about the Supreme Court’s ruling and what it will mean, since we won’t know until June at the earliest. But still:
Will the Affordable Care Act be upheld? If it’s overturned, will that mean the end of the entire 2,000-page law or just the individual mandate? If the mandate gets overturned but all of the other restrictions are upheld (that’s my guess), how will this affect the health insurance industry?
Will this be the demise of the private health insurance industry? Will it pave the way for a Single Payer / Universal Coverage system?
A lot of conservatives are speculating — or hoping anyway — that if the individual mandate is overturned, the rest of the Affordable Care Act will collapse like a house of cards. But that doesn’t make sense. As far as I know, nobody is claiming that it’s “unconstitutional” to require HMOs to insure people with pre-existing conditions, or to prohibit HMOs from canceling their patients’ coverage after they’ve gotten sick.
My understanding is that the individual mandate — whether or not it’s unconstitutional — is the only issue before the Supreme Court.
If the individual mandate is overturned but all of the other restrictions are still in place, that will put the health insurance industry in an awkward position. They’ll still be bound by all of the “Obamacare” regulations but without the billions of premium dollars guaranteed by the individual mandate.
But that has nothing to do with the Constitution or the judicial branch. That’s for the legislative branch to decide. (I think one of the Supreme Court justices was saying exactly that, but I can’t remember where I read it.)
Anyway, it’ll be interesting to see how this shakes out. How do you think the Supreme Court will rule, and what will be the result?
Will the Affordable Care Act be upheld? If it’s overturned, will that mean the end of the entire 2,000-page law or just the individual mandate? If the mandate gets overturned but all of the other restrictions are upheld (that’s my guess), how will this affect the health insurance industry?
Will this be the demise of the private health insurance industry? Will it pave the way for a Single Payer / Universal Coverage system?
A lot of conservatives are speculating — or hoping anyway — that if the individual mandate is overturned, the rest of the Affordable Care Act will collapse like a house of cards. But that doesn’t make sense. As far as I know, nobody is claiming that it’s “unconstitutional” to require HMOs to insure people with pre-existing conditions, or to prohibit HMOs from canceling their patients’ coverage after they’ve gotten sick.
My understanding is that the individual mandate — whether or not it’s unconstitutional — is the only issue before the Supreme Court.
If the individual mandate is overturned but all of the other restrictions are still in place, that will put the health insurance industry in an awkward position. They’ll still be bound by all of the “Obamacare” regulations but without the billions of premium dollars guaranteed by the individual mandate.
But that has nothing to do with the Constitution or the judicial branch. That’s for the legislative branch to decide. (I think one of the Supreme Court justices was saying exactly that, but I can’t remember where I read it.)
Anyway, it’ll be interesting to see how this shakes out. How do you think the Supreme Court will rule, and what will be the result?
posted by Tom Harper @ 6:25 PM
10 Comments:
My Prediction:
Since parts of it could be used against the right in the future, I predict the Supreme's (without Diana Ross) will tear it apart piece by piece and then throw it back to Congress and another round of fights.
Erik
I think the Court will overturn the individual mandate, and keep the rest of it. Ways will be found to bring down the cost of health care so more Americans can have coverage. It is what Americans want.
Even if the whole thing collapses, the left has its collective foot in the door when it comes to working toward universal coverage. People have been given some things they like... there are parts of the Affordable Health Care Act that are very popular. Take those away, and it will only galvanize those who want those things. For things like keeping kids on your coverage until age 26 and not denying coverage due to pre-existing conditions, some polls have shown that Americans like those things by margins of 2-1. Conservatives thinking they will be rid of the entire thing is a pipe dream.
What is the estimate on how much the AHCA would cost a person on a monthly basis to insure himself or herself or a family? It seems to me it would be less than what most people I know are paying, which is as much as $1000+ a month. Why not spend less for something everyone ends up getting, and have more money in your pocket each month to spend, invest, pay off debt, etc.?
However much it is, people want to pay less. I believe that whatever happens with (or to) the AHCA, politicians will be looking for ways to make coverage cost less so more Americans can afford it.
Personally, it wouldn't bother me for the entire thing to be kicked out. It was an abortion from the get go and had Obama any backbone he would have vetoed it. The nation needs universal health care and the quickest way to get there is to wait until the crises happens, which won't be long.
My wife recently went to work for a major HMO (any port in a storm) and those assholes are already hiking rates and polishing loopholes in anticipation of the health care act going into effect.
My wife recently went to work for a major HMO (any port in a storm) and those assholes are already hiking rates and polishing loopholes in anticipation of the health care act going into effect.
and if car insurance companies were required to take on 30 million new clients I can bet we would see huge increases there too and they don't even cover regular maintenance.
Drivers are already mandated to carry car insurance.
Drivers are already mandated to carry car insurance.
and they should
We won't know the decision until after the corpo-judges are told what is should be by the insurance companies.
Anon,
Not sure what you are saying, but in California when it was mandated that all drivers carry insurance, which resulted in more policies (read: Money) for the Insurance companies, rates still went up.
Erik
It's the demand.
Erik: I wouldn't doubt it. If that happens, I think Republicans will suffer more. Everybody hates the individual mandate, but these same people don't want to be denied coverage for pre-existing conditions, or dumped by their HMOs because they had the nerve to get sick.
Snave: You're right, if the popular parts of the Affordable Care Act are overturned, the public will be just as galvanized as they were when Obama was first elected after campaigning for the public option.
Mr. C: I share your disappointment in the ACA and how it was put together, and Obama's handling of the whole issue. He got elected by campaigning in favor of the public option, and then dropped it like a hot potato as soon as he took office.
Either single payer or the public option is the only thing that will work, and the sooner the quicker.
Lisa (I know that's you because nobody else in the universe uses a quote from somebody else's comment without using quotation marks, bold text or italics to set it apart): As 2 other commenters point out, drivers in some states ARE required to carry auto insurance, and rates are still going up.
Jerry: I remember when California passed that law in the mid '80s. I'm not sure how many other states have the same mandate.
Dave: Sad but true.
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